1. Cyclical trends: dynamic game between policies, economy and resource prices

1. Policy cycle: subsidy decline and carbon constraint strengthening coexist

Decline pressure: major markets such as China and Europe gradually cancel direct car purchase subsidies and turn to carbon emission regulations (such as the EU ban on the sale of fuel vehicles in 2035) and infrastructure subsidies.

New policy tools: carbon tariffs (such as CBAM), zero-emission vehicle credit trading (ZEV), charging network tax credits, etc. will become the main driving force.

Regional differentiation: emerging markets (Southeast Asia, Latin America) may introduce incentive policies to attract industrial chain investment, forming a "subsidy relay".

Data: According to the IEA forecast, the global penetration rate of new energy vehicles will reach 35%-50% in 2030, and policies will still be the core variable of short-term fluctuations.

2. Economic cycle and demand elasticity

Interest rate sensitivity: The Fed's interest rate hike cycle suppresses consumers' willingness to purchase car loans. In 2023, the growth rate of electric vehicle sales in the United States will slow down to 40% (lower than 65% in 2022).

Cost transmission: The price fluctuations of key resources such as lithium and nickel (such as lithium carbonate falling from 600,000 yuan/ton to 100,000 yuan/ton) have led to the differentiation of pricing strategies of automakers.

Consumption classification: During the economic downturn, the market performance of high-cost models (such as BYD Seagull) and luxury brands (such as Lucid) is polarized.

3. Industrial chain inventory cycle

Battery overcapacity: In 2023, the global power battery capacity utilization rate will be less than 60%, and second-tier manufacturers will face the risk of clearance.

Chip supply and demand rebalancing: Automotive-grade chips have shifted from shortage to structural surplus, but high-level autonomous driving chips (such as Nvidia Thor) are still in short supply.

2. Structural trends: technology, model and value chain reshaping

Business model innovation: from selling cars to full life cycle services

Rise of subscription system: Tesla FSD monthly payment, Weilai BaaS battery leasing model lowers the threshold for car purchase.

Energy network closed loop: car companies deploy V2G (vehicle-network interaction), integrated photovoltaic storage and charging (such as BYD energy storage power station), and tap into the value of vehicle energy storage.

Data realization: high-precision maps and user behavior data become new profit growth points.

3. Synergy between cycle and structure: three certain directions

1. Cost reduction drives the popularization of "oil and electricity parity"

- Battery costs may drop to $70/kWh in 2025 ($110/kWh in 2023), and Class A cars will achieve parity with fuel vehicles.

- Integrated die-casting (Tesla Cybertruck) and CTC battery chassis technology (Zero Run C01) further reduce costs and increase efficiency.

2. Emerging markets become new growth engines

- The penetration rate of electric vehicles in Southeast Asia, India, the Middle East and other places may exceed 20% in 2030 (currently <5%), and BYD, SAIC MG and others are accelerating their layout.

- Localized production + low-end models (such as Wuling Air EV) open up incremental space.

3. Industrial division of labor and specialization

The rise of the OEM model: Foxconn MIH platform, Magna OEM Fisker Ocean, and traditional car companies transforming to "technology companies + OEM".

Segmented market explosion: electric pickup trucks (Tesla Cybertruck) and micro cars (Hongguang MINI EV) meet diversified needs.

IV. Risks and challenges

1. Uncertainty of technical routes: Hydrogen fuel cells and synthetic fuels may divert some policy support.

2. Geopolitical risks: embargo on key resources (such as China's graphite export control), technological decoupling (Europe and the United States restrict Chinese battery imports).

3. Infrastructure lags behind: The global charging pile gap may reach 30 million (Bloomberg NEF data), which restricts the penetration of the sinking market.

Conclusion: From "replacing fuel vehicles" to "defining new cars"

In the next 10 years, new energy vehicles will go beyond "power form change" and become a collection of smart terminals, energy nodes and data carriers. Enterprises need to balance short-term cyclical fluctuations (such as resource prices and interest rate policies) and long-term structural transformation (technology research and development, ecological construction) to seize the initiative in the carbon neutral era. For investors, focusing on the three main lines of battery technology breakthroughs, regional market penetration rate leaps, and business model innovation may capture the greatest value.