Gold ETF performance

Shanghai Gold ETF Fund (159831) rose for 3 consecutive days, with a daily increase of 1.62%. In the past 20 trading days, it has accumulated 39.8739 million yuan in gold, reflecting the market's continued favor for gold assets.

2. The core factors driving the rise in gold prices

Surge in safe-haven demand

Global economic uncertainty has intensified, and geopolitical conflicts (such as regional tensions and tariff policy disputes) have prompted investors to turn to gold for safe-haven.

The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has increased, coupled with the US debt problem and inflation risks, and the attractiveness of gold as an anti-inflation asset has increased.

Central bank gold purchases and market supply and demand

In 2024, the global central bank's gold purchases will reach 1,045 tons, and the gold reserves of the People's Bank of China will increase to 73.45 million ounces, which will support gold prices in the long term.

Strategic resource recycling (such as gallium extraction plans) promotes the demand for electronic waste recycling, indirectly strengthening the closed loop of the gold industry chain.

Technical breakthrough

- Spot gold broke through the historical resistance level of $2957 and accelerated upward, the Bollinger Band opening widened, and the bullish momentum was strong. The short-term target is the $3000-3034 range.

III. Gold investment channels and strategy recommendations

Investment strategy recommendations

Short-term operation: If the gold price falls back to the support range of $2956-2972 (daily level), long orders can be opened in batches, with the target above $3000.

Long-term allocation: The fixed investment strategy smooths the volatility risk, and the gold allocation ratio is increased to 5%-10% to hedge the portfolio volatility.

Risk warning: Avoid chasing high prices, pay attention to the Fed's policy shift signals and changes in the geopolitical situation, and diversify investments into gold stocks, precious metal funds and other derivatives.

IV. Outlook for future trends

Price target: Institutions generally predict that the gold price is expected to break through $3,000, and may challenge the $3,100-3,200 range in the medium term. The technical and fundamental resonance supports the upward trend.

Intelligent trend: IoT recycling system and AI-driven resource prediction technology (such as "urban mine" development) will improve the efficiency of gold recycling and reduce the cost of the industrial chain.

Policy linkage: The "carbon neutrality" goals of various countries promote the development of green finance, and the application scenarios of gold as an environmentally friendly material (such as recycled aggregates and photovoltaic modules) are broadened, and long-term demand growth can be expected.

Conclusion

In 2025, the gold market will continue to strengthen under the dual drive of risk aversion and inflation. Investors need to flexibly choose investment tools based on their own risk preferences. Physical gold is suitable for long-term value preservation, spot and ETF are suitable for capturing short-term fluctuations, and policy and technological innovation will reshape the gold industry chain. It is recommended to pay close attention to the dynamics of the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks, rationally allocate gold assets, and achieve risk hedging and return balance.